Artificial intelligence can predict, with a high degree of accuracy, future heart failure among patients living with diabetes
Heart failure is an important potential complication of type 2 diabetes that occurs frequently and can lead to death or disability. New research shows that artificial intelligence can predict, with a high degree of accuracy, future heart failure among patients with diabetes. The findings were presented at the Heart Failure Society of America Annual Scientific Meeting in Philadelphia and simultaneously published in Diabetes Care.
“Our risk score provides a novel prediction tool to identify patients who face a heart failure risk in the next five years,” said co-first author Matthew Segar, MD, MS, a resident physician at UT Southwestern. “By not requiring specific clinical cardiovascular biomarkers or advanced imaging, this risk score is readily integrable into bedside practice or electronic health record systems and may identify patients who would benefit from therapeutic interventions.”
“BMI was one of the top predictors of heart failure risk, which reinforces the idea that long-term excess weight may increase future risk for heart failure. We hope this work highlights ways to intervene – both through lifestyle changes and through the use of SGLT2 inhibitors – to delay or even entirely prevent heart failure,”
Data from 8,756 patients with diabetes enrolled in the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial was used for development of the risk score, called WATCH-DM.
Over the course of almost five years, 319 patients (3.6 percent) developed heart failure. The team identified the 10 top-performing predictors of heart failure, which make up the WATCH-DM risk score: weight (BMI), age, hypertension, creatinine, HDL-C, diabetes control (fasting plasma glucose), QRS duration, myocardial infarction and coronary artery bypass grafting. Patients with the highest WATCH-DM scores faced a five-year risk of heart failure approaching 20 percent.
“BMI was one of the top predictors of heart failure risk, which reinforces the idea that long-term excess weight may increase future risk for heart failure. We hope this work highlights ways to intervene – both through lifestyle changes and through the use of SGLT2 inhibitors – to delay or even entirely prevent heart failure,” said co-first author Muthiah Vaduganathan, MD, MPH, a cardiologist at the Brigham.
This risk tool is an important step in the right direction to promote prevention of heart failure in patients with type 2 diabetes.
