India will account for roughly 43% health savings and China for 55%.
The costs of implementing the Paris Climate Agreement between 2020-2050 could be outweighed by health savings due to reduced air pollution-related disease and death,with India and China accounting for the largest chunk of health savings.
According to estimates from a modelling study published in The Lancet Planetary Health journal, India will account for roughly 43% of the health savings and China for 55%. This is because these countries have large populations, many of whom are exposed to higher than acceptable pollution levels. There are differing estimates of air pollution related casualties in India. Some reports put it at as high as 1.2 million deaths every year.
large health co-benefits we have estimated for different scenarios and countries might help policymakers move towards adopting more ambitious climate policies
195 countries are currently signed up to the Paris Climate Agreement, which is due to commence in 2020. It aims to reduce the impacts of climate change by preventing the global average temperature from increasing to 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with a view to further limit this to less than 1.5°C. However, how these targets will be achieved and funded by all countries has not yet been agreed.
“We hope that the large health co-benefits we have estimated for different scenarios and countries might help policymakers move towards adopting more ambitious climate policies and measures to reduce air pollution, and to consider how to share the burden of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution-related disease,” says Professor Anil Markandya, Basque Centre for Climate Change, Spain.
In the study, the authors combined a number of existing models to estimate emission levels, air pollution-related deaths (as a result of respiratory disease, heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, stroke, lung cancer, and acute lower respiratory airway infections) and their costs, costs of climate change mitigation, and healthcare co-benefits for the US, EU-27, China, India, and the rest of the world.
They modelled the impacts of doing nothing, continuing current country-level policies, and three different strategies for implementing and funding the Paris Agreement towards the 2°C and the 1.5°C limits.
Current country-level strategies are estimated to cost US$7.5 trillion and could potentially lead to 5% fewer air pollution-related deaths globally between 2020-2050, compared to no mitigation strategies being in place (128 million deaths for no mitigation vs. 122 million deaths using country-by-country interventions).
Under this scenario, the US and EU would contribute the majority of the costs (US: 66.3%, $4.9 trillion. EU: 28.9%, $2.2 trillion), while under the Paris Climate Agreement costs would be spread more evenly across all countries – with cost increases likely to be smallest for the US and EU, and largest for the rest of the world, India, and China.
Overall, the costs of the implementing the Paris Climate Agreement ranged from 0.5-1% global GDP ($22.1 trillion-$41.6 trillion) for the 2°C target, and from 1-1.3% global GDP ($39.7 trillion-$56.1 trillion) for the 1.5°C target. The study estimates significantly fewer air pollution-related deaths between 2020-2050 globally under these options – reducing deaths by 21-27% if the 2°C target were met (between 101-93 million deaths) and by 28-32% if the 1.5°C target were met (between 92-87 million deaths).
Depending on the strategy used to mitigate climate change, estimates suggest that the health savings from reduced air pollution could be between 1.4-2.5 times greater than the costs of climate change mitigation, globally.
In addition, the cost of setting any climate change mitigation policies in China and India would be fully compensated by just the health savings made in most scenarios, and the added costs of pursuing the 1.5°C target instead of the 2°C target could generate substantial benefits (India: $3.3-8.4 trillion. China: $0.3-2.3 trillion, respectively).
“Attaining the 2°C target comes with considerable benefits from reduced climate change globally, such as health benefits, employment opportunities, reduced loss of or damage to property, and reduced losses in agriculture. Furthermore, attaining a 1.5°C target has even greater climate benefits.” says Professor Markandya.
The authors note some limitations, including that their health cost estimates only look at air pollution-related disease and death, and there could be further health savings from other pollution-related disease. The study also relies on the accuracy of the models it used.
