Study in The Lancet Oncology says that one in every two childhood cancer cases in the world go undiagnosed and untreated
One in every two childhood cancer cases in the world go undiagnosed and untreated.
A modelling study published in The Lancet Oncology journal estimates that there are almost 400,000 new cases of childhood cancer annually. Current records count only around 200,000.
The new model makes predictions for 200 countries and estimates that undiagnosed cases could account for more than half of the total in Africa, South Central Asia and the Pacific Islands. In contrast, in North America and Europe only three per cent of cases remain undiagnosed. If no improvements are made, the study authors estimate that nearly three million further cases will be missed between 2015 and 2030.
“Our model suggests that nearly one in two children with cancer are never diagnosed and may die untreated,” says study author Zachary Ward from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, USA. “Accurate estimates of childhood cancer incidence are critical for policy makers to help them set healthcare priorities and to plan for effective diagnosis and treatment of all children with cancer. While under-diagnosis has been acknowledged as a problem, this model provides specific estimates that have been lacking.”
“Accurate estimates of childhood cancer incidence are critical for policy makers to help them set healthcare priorities and to plan for effective diagnosis and treatment of all children with cancer. While under-diagnosis has been acknowledged as a problem, this model provides specific estimates that have been lacking.”
Previous estimates for the total incidence of global childhood cancer have been based on data from cancer registries, which identify cases in defined populations. However, 60% of countries worldwide do not have such registries and those that do only cover a small fraction of the overall population. Many patients are not diagnosed and are therefore not recorded. This can occur due to lack of access to primary care, with patients dying undiagnosed at home, or due to misdiagnosis.
The new model developed for this study, the Global Childhood Cancer microsimulation model, incorporates data from cancer registries in countries where they exist, combining it with data from the World Health Organisation’s Global Health Observatory, demographic health surveys and household surveys developed by Unicef. The model was calibrated to data from public registries and adjusts for under-diagnosis due to weaknesses in national health systems.
The study authors provide estimates of under-diagnosis for each of the 200 countries. They estimate that in 2015 there were 397,000 childhood cancer cases globally, compared to 224,000 that were recorded as diagnosed. This suggests that 43% (172,000 cases) of global childhood cancer cases were undiagnosed. There was substantial regional variation, ranging from 3% in both Western Europe (120 undiagnosed cases out of 4,300 total new cases) and North America (300 of 10,900 cases) to 57% (43,000 of 76,000 new cases) in Western Africa.
In most regions of the world, the number of new childhood cancer cases is declining or stable. However, the authors estimate that 92% of all new cases occur in low and middle-income countries, a higher proportion than previously thought.
The most common childhood cancer in most regions of the world in 2015 was found to be acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, with the notable exception of sub-Saharan Africa. There were around 75,000 new cases globally, including nearly 700 in North Europe, over 1,500 in West Africa, over 3,500 in East Africa and nearly 30,000 in South Central Asia. In East and West Africa, Burkitt’s lymphoma was more common, with over 4,000 cases in East Africa and over 10,000 in West Africa. For example, there were around 1,000 cases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Ethiopia, while only around 20 in the UK.
“Health systems in low-income and middle-income countries are clearly failing to meet the needs of children with cancer. Universal health coverage, a target of United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, must include cancer in children as a priority to prevent needless deaths,” says senior author Professor Rifat Atun, Harvard University, USA.
