The report says despite progress India and China unlikely to meet the 2030 target even by 2040
India miss UN targets to reduce premature deaths because of non communicable diseases by a substantial margin; may not achieve the goals for 2030 even by 2040.
More than half of all countries are predicted to fail to reach the target to reduce casualties due to cancers, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease, and diabetes by 2030. Among them are both India and China the countries with the largest populations.
This is according to a new analysis published in The Lancet ahead of the third UN High-Level Meeting on NCDs commencing on 27 September 2018.
In India in 2016, 30-year old women had a 20% chance of dying from one of the four major NCDs before their 70th birthday. 30-year old men a 27% chance.
Countries act soon if they are to meet sustainable development goal (SDG) target 3.4 – to reduce the number of deaths caused by the four major NCDs in people aged between 30 and 70 years by a third by 2030.
“Despite clear commitments, international aid agencies and national governments are doing too little to reduce deaths from cancers, heart and lung diseases and diabetes. Progress is even slower for other diseases that are not a part of SDG target, meaning that the true health of people in most countries is even more dire,” says senior author Professor Majid Ezzati, Imperial College London, UK.
The report is the first from NCD Countdown 2030 – an independent annual monitor of progress on reducing the worldwide burden of NCDs.
Here’s what it found.
In 2016, the likelihood of dying from one of the four major NCDs between the ages of 30 and 70 years was lowest for women in South Korea (less than 5%), and highest for women in Sierra Leone (about 33%) – an almost seven-fold larger risk.
For men, the risk was lowest in Iceland (10%) and highest in Mongolia (39%).
In India in 2016, 30-year old women had a 20% chance of dying from one of the four major NCDs before their 70th birthday. 30-year old men a 27% chance. In the USA, the risks were 12% for 30-year old women and 18% for men, while they were 14% and 20% (respectively) in China.
While there were 12.5 million premature deaths from the four major NCDs in people aged 30-70 years in 2016, there were 27.3 million deaths from all NCDs in all people aged less than 80.
The study found that although NCD mortality is decreasing in most countries, the pace of decline varies substantially, even among countries in the same region.
Of the 186 countries assessed, the majority of countries (86 countries [46%] for women and 97 countries [52%] for men) will not reach the SDG 3.4 target even by 2040 and require policies that substantially improve premature death rates. This includes China and India, the two most populous countries in the world, where premature mortality from the four major NCDs has declined but not sufficiently quickly to meet SDG target 3.4.